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News Link • Future Predictions

Tokyo Population To Halve In The Next 90 Years

•, Julian Ryall

A study group set up by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and including academics and city officials estimate that the census figure for 2100 will see Tokyo's population standing at about 7.13 million people. In the last census, in 2010, there were 13.16 million residents of the city, with that total predicted to rise to a peak of 13.35 million in 2020 before beginning a relentless slump.

Japan is on the brink of a population crisis, experts are warning, with one of the most rapidly ageing societies in the world - thanks in part to medical advances enabling people to live longer than ever before - but young couples having fewer and fewer children.

In 2011, some 1,057,000 children were born, a decline of 14,000 on the previous year.
The situation is so critical that the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research has warned that there will be a mere 49.59 million Japanese by 2100, a decline of more than 61 percent on the 2010 figure.

Added to the concern over the falling birth rate are the obvious economic consequences of a huge imbalance in the ages of the population. In the not-too-distant future, experts warn, there will be too few working-age people paying for the health care and pensions of the elderly population.

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