I think we first see, over the next couple of years, the transfer of government debt from private balance sheets to central bank balance sheets. I do believe the 30 year bull market in government bonds is over. I mentioned in the media (Barron’s) Roundtable that one should be selling half of what he owns, and should sell the other half in September at the latest.
I think the whole game is over. Bonds are very overvalued. The real return is negative. Normally bonds yield at least as much as nominal GDP growth. Nominal GDP growth at the present time is about 3% or 4% in the US. I’m not suggesting we go right there tomorrow (in terms of yield), but bonds are very overvalued.