Then there’s bonehead government policy decisions to contend with… like converting valuable grains into inefficient biofuel for automobiles. Paying farmers to NOT plant. Banning exports. Etc.
Of course, the most destructive is monetary policy. The unmitigated expansion of the money supply has led to substantial inflation of agriculture commodities prices.
These fundamentals overwhelmingly point to a simple trend: food prices will continue rising. And that’s the best case. The worst case is severe shortages. This is a trend that thinking, creative people ought to be aware of and do something about.
One solution is to buying farmland overseas. It provides an excellent hedge against inflation, plus it’s one of the best (and most private) ways to move money abroad, out of the jurisdiction of your home government.