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News Link • Future Predictions

If These Two Brilliant Investors Are Right About Future Growth, The World Is Screwed

•, The Economist
 WHAT distinguishes modern man from his ancestors is the expectation of steady economic and population growth. Since the start of the 19th century, both have taken off in a way that was not seen in ancient times or the middle ages.

As we look forward to the next 20-30 years, we can be pretty sure that population growth is going to slow, and in some countries, there will be a fall. Does the same apply to the economic growth rate?

Two fund management groups have just completed fairly gloomy notes on this subject. At Research Affiliates, Christopher Brightman suggests that US growth will only be 1% a year while Jeremy Grantham of GMO plumps for 1.4%. On their logic, the outlook for Europe, where the demographic trends are even less promising, is even worse.

If they are right, then the effects will be profound. As Mr Brightman points out, fiscal sums are usually calculated on the basis of a return to "normal" growth rates.

1 Comments in Response to

Comment by Ed Price
Entered on:

They are not right. People have become used to innovation. Prior to about 300 years ago, only a very few people in the world were involved in creating new labor saving devices, in making new inventions, in discovering what the world is all about. Nowadays, almost everyone in the modern countries is doing it. At least, they are looking at research ideas as the info becomes available through the Internet.

ALL obstacles will be overcome by the PEOPLE implementing new technologies to their lives. The one-world government will be the government of non-government, controlled by free trade among individuals around the world. World domination will fail because multitudes of folks will be providing ways that will automatically keep aggression from starting.

This leaves us with the questions. Did the 2 brilliant Investors in the article simply not consider this? Or are they trying to help the Big Fascist Governments and Banks maintain control by attempting to focus people in the direction of dependence on somebody-else-has-to-do-it-because-I-am-not-smart-enough?

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