Napier’s presentation, “Deflation in an Age of Fiat Currency,” is thought-provoking, and the precise polar opposite of investing as usual. A wry and picaresque speaker, he starts with some conclusions. Among them:
- To reach record lows [akin to those on offer in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982], US equities will have to fall by more than 60%.
- Central banks are straining to produce inflation, and developments in emerging markets (i.e. China) suggest a deflation shock is now likely.