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News Link • Federal Reserve

Someone Just Placed A Massive Bet That Yellen Will Surprise Investors Tomorrow

• by Tyler Durden

As Bloomberg reports, the steepening trade looks to cash in on the eurodollar strip being close to the flattest levels of the year, reflecting odds of a December rate hike recently dropping to just 30 percent based on OIS.

Open interest, or the amount of new risk, jumped 10 percent in the December 2020 eurodollar futures, according to CME data, reflecting the new position.

While this trader seems convinced a surprise is coming, most sell-side shops see tomorrow as more of the same snoozefest. As we detailed previously, Deutsche Bank's strategists noted that:

"in the US there is a tension between softer inflation and easy financial conditions and given the topic of Yellen's speech is 'financial stability' she may lean towards prioritising one side or the other.

Overall the market will probably be most sensitive as to whether a December hike is more or less likely after her comments. The imminent halting of reinvestment seems to be considered a fine deal."

And UBS is convinced that Friday's events will be a snooze fest? Here is the explanation

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