US equity markets have been on fire & some economic indicators point to more optimism yet ahead (i.e., PMI readings, durable goods orders, nominal wholesales, factory orders, & retail sales all suggest strong growth [Ex. 1-5]).
However, these are largely coincident or lagging indicators, as well as surveys influenced by mkt sentiment. Meanwhile, when analyzing forward-looking monetary indicators, we note:
(1) US public debt rose to 105% of GDP (vs. just 31% of GDP when Reagan cut taxes), vs. 62% in 3Q07, & with fewer tax receipts + higher spending likely in the coming yrs. some pundits est. this ratio rising to ~125% by '30,
Exhibit 6: US Public Debt to GDP