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A Number of US Monetary Signals Are Flashing Red… Does it Matter?

•, By Gordon Johnson

US equity markets have been on fire & some economic indicators point to more optimism yet ahead (i.e., PMI readings, durable goods orders, nominal wholesales, factory orders, & retail sales all suggest strong growth [Ex. 1-5]).

However, these are largely coincident or lagging indicators, as well as surveys influenced by mkt sentiment.  Meanwhile, when analyzing forward-looking monetary indicators, we note:

(1) US public debt rose to 105% of GDP (vs. just 31% of GDP when Reagan cut taxes), vs. 62% in 3Q07, & with fewer tax receipts + higher spending likely in the coming yrs. some pundits est. this ratio rising to ~125% by '30,

Exhibit 6: US Public Debt to GDP

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