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Calculated Risk vs Mish: Demographics Good for Housing?

• https://www.themaven.net

In Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2017 Calculated Risk noted "The younger baby boom generation dominated in 2010. By 2017 the millennials have taken over. And by 2020, the boomers are off the list."

He concluded "My view is this is positive for both housing and the economy, especially in the 2020s."

Color Coding

To judge that assessment, I took Calculated Risk's table and color coded it.

Red: Not Buying

Yellow: Likely Cannot Afford to Buy

Green: Potential First Time Buyers

2030 is too far away to make an assessment. Too many things can happen. Instead, let's discuss the next five years or so, using the middle column as our guide.

Synopsis

There is a favorable shift from cohorts 4-5 to chorts 2-3.

The first "not buying" cohort jumps from cohort 7 to cohort 4.

There were three "not buying" groups in 2017 but there are four in 2020.

There was a favorable shift from "cannot afford" from 2017 to 2020.

On the surface, the demographic trends may appear neutral or slightly favorable. However, I was pretty lenient with the green, potential first-time buyers.

Given housing price trends, most 25-29 cannot afford a house now and unless there is a price crash, those conditions will not change in the next five years.

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