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News Link • Space Travel and Exploration

Every 3-5 years SpaceX is adding a decade lead on competitors

• by brian wang

"Musk said it's 'game over,' and I [John Young] believe that's true."

Nextbigfuture analysis is that SpaceX has built a lead that will take 15 years for competitors to match with the Falcon 9 Block 5 and the Falcon Heavy. Around 2028, China might start test flights something approaching the Falcon 9 block 5 with the Long March 8.

Blue Origin could start testing its New Glenn Rocket in 2020. It will take Blue Origin at least 2-3 years to work out its tests for the new Glenn Rocket. A lot has to go right for Blue Origin which has not gone to orbit yet.

If SpaceX delivers the fully reusable SpaceX BFR rocket for launching 150 tons into space at a cost of $10-30 million per launch by 2023, then it could be 2035 before any nation or company can match it. It would take $10-30 billion to develop such a competing system. SpaceX will be sucking up all of the commercial launches from any potential competitor.

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