Political pundits and ideologues of all sorts are possessed of a kind of double vision, a two-track perspective on the world that informs and modifies their worldview. This condition, which might normally be considered a disability, requires the strictest discipline, because it involves the ability to distinguish what one thinks will probably happen from what one passionately wants to happen.
For the ideologue, the integration of these two tracks into a single narrative is his life's work. It's the difference between a successful ideological entrepreneur and some crank handing out tattered leaflets on a street corner. It's the difference between those who warned that the invasion of Iraq would end in a tragic disaster and Bill Kristol who said we'd win in "two months." Elevating the playing field a bit, it's the difference between Ludwig von Mises, who back in 1920 said socialism could not work, and the leading intellectuals of the time who claimed capitalism was doomed and the only question was what authoritarian system would replace it.