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News Link • Economy - Recession-Depression

Inverted Yield Curve Points to Recession?

• Martin Armstrong-Armstrong Economics

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone calls an Inverted Yield Curve, and is seen as an early indicator of a recession. In that regard, it is conforming to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) which has been warning that this last leg should be a hard landing economically for most of the world. Nonetheless, while the yield curve has inverted, it has done so in a rather unusual manner. This is NOT suggesting a major recession in the United States. Instead, it is a reflection of global uncertainty outside the USA.

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