In total, futures prices reflect 65 bps of expected easing during 2019 and an additional 30 bps of easing during 2020, reflecting a total of 4 rate cuts by the end of 2020.
Even more unprecedented, the market-implied year-end 2020 funds rate has plunged to 1.45%, down 85 bps since early March and 15 bps during the past week after Fed chair Powell said on Tuesday that the Fed would monitor developments on the trade conflict and "act as appropriate."
And yet, despite broader market expectations of easier policy, professional forecasters remain less convinced according to Goldman's David Kostin. According to FactSet data, 30 professional forecasters have revised or reconfirmed their funds rate forecasts during the past two weeks. The median forecaster in this sample expects the funds rate to be unchanged by year-end 2019, with 13 respondents expecting some amount of easing. Goldman's own economists' base case forecast is the Fed does not cut interest rates during the next 2 years, but it does see mounting trade tensions as a source of downside risk that is likely to get worse before it gets better.