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Trade War Nightmare Causes Collapse In Demand For US Industrial Space, Says Cushman & Wakefield

• by Tyler Durdan

Cushman & Wakefield's economists warned President Trump's trade war is unraveling complex supply chains around the world that have led to a slump in demand for industrial space. They also said the restocking trend by importers forced by the tariffs is likely over. There is also another possibility that the slowdown could be linked to some seasonal factors, the economist said.

"It is possible that the trade dispute is causing disruptions to supply chains which are causing demand for industrial space to slow. Another possibility is companies may have overstocked before the implementation of tariffs in 2018. Seasonality, a general slowing in the global economy and lagging supply may also have been the main culprits," economists Kevin Thorpe and Rebecca Rockey said in the report.

The report said world export volumes are expected to have no growth this year, dropping from a 5% annual expansion rate in the last two years.

To best visualize the global slowdown is YoY changes in global trade as measured by the IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics, courtesy of BMO's Ian Lyngern. It shows the collapse in global exports as broken down into three categories:

Exports to the world (weakest since 2009),

Exports to advances economies (also lowest since 2009), and

Exports to the European Union (challenging 2009 lows).

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