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News Link • Federal Reserve

Why The Fed Has To Cut 100bps, But Will Only Do So After A Market Crash

• Via Strategic Macro blog

It seems we are now there, via a different driver. With USD Libor above the yields of Treasuries and other fixed income securities, financial and other investors are incentivised/ forced to take profits and it seems repatriation is going on. This is also causing the Euro to now rally in risk off days and the USD to sell off. That's the opposite of prior relationships and shows just how much the US has been dependent on external funding in this cycle and on an ongoing basis, given Trump's deficits.

You can clearly see the repatriation in the Yen. The Yen bottomed in Q4 as US 10 year yields peaked and has tracked the US 10 year lower (stronger Yen). Recently the US 10 yield going below USD Libor has accelerated both the Yen rally and the fall in yields; they seem to be reinforcing themselves on a reflexive basis.

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