Many of my readers think I'm some sort of uber-bear, repeatedly predicting some inevitable and unavoidable market Armageddon is imminent and just moments away. While Scotsmen are seldom mistaken for a sunny day, I'm actually a fairly cheerful soul. Even while foretelling the dire and bloody end of the financial world I always caveat it with no matter how bad the next downturn might be - the sun will come up the following morning. However, and but again (dark clouds blank the sun) I do think we should be aware of just how tenuous all this market euphoria in Bonds and Stocks still is.
This morning we wake up to lots of stuff that could move markets:
It's no surprise We Work's IPO now looks in serious trouble. Largest stockholder, Softbank, asked the firm to postpone the IPO. Its junk bonds are crashing because without the IPO, We Work loses access to an agreed $6 bln bank credit-line finance. While the Junk debt price tumbles, it's unlikely the firm launch a new bond to cover the shortfall in its curious lose more money to make less business strategy. Investors are turning away. We Work is now caught in the classic liquidity death spiral. There are few ways to successful escape such a terminal stall. Their CEO, Adam Neumann, has made himself one of the most disliked and divisive figures in Tech world, and could find himself at the receiving end of unpalatable demands he surrenders control, gives up his controlling stock – which could uncover a host of interesting surprises on how he's milked it.