Today's latest quarterly refunding announcement was closely watched for any commentary on how the Treasury may respond to the Fed's recent "Not QE" announcement, which has the central bank buying up $60BN in Bills every month, which according to some strategists could cause a shortage of net Bill issuance, leading to fresh money market turmoil.
But before we get to that, here is a summary of the bigger picture: the Treasury reported that nominal coupon and floating-rate auction sizes will not change in the November-January quarter, as expected, at a record $84 billion for a fourth straight quarter. Per Bloomberg:
Government will sell $38 billion in three-year notes on Nov. 5, $27 billion of 10-year notes on Nov. 6, and $19 billion of 30-year bonds on Nov. 7
Planned sales, in line with guidance from July, will raise new cash of about $23.5 billion
This was in line with projections, as last year's substantial increase in nominal coupon auction sizes in addition to higher bill issuance continues to provide sufficient funding to cover Treasury's financing needs roughly until the end of FY2020, at which point auction sizes will need to again rise incrementally. TIPS auction sizes will also be held constant in the upcoming quarter after rising in previous quarters, in line with Treasury's guidance. As with coupons, TIPS auction sizes will rise modestly in 2020 following the next refunding announcement.