Gold Monthly Chart 2010-Present
Smart Money Shorts
I ignore short-term COT "smart money" warnings although I would prefer there to be fewer bulls.
For discussion of "smart money", please see Investigating Alleged Smart Money Positions in Gold.
Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog pinged me with this idea: The only caveat remains the large net speculative long position, but at the moment this strikes me almost as a "bear hook" that is keeping people on the sidelines waiting for the "inevitable" pullback while the train is leaving the station.
With the 6-year consolidation over, there is every reason fundamentally and technically for gold to continue up.
So, be my guest if you want to time gold to COT positions.