It's Friday before a long weekend in the U.S. I expect that, barring any unexpected news, shortly after the University of Michigan data is out, many traders will be thinking about their Valentine's Day plans rather than the next move in the FRA/OIS spread. Still, how risk goes out will be an important indicator of sentiment. Even if the price action of any individual asset should be taken with a grain of salt.
It was another day and another German data miss. This time it was a flat Q4 GDP print. To be fair, it wasn't a large shortfall, but their data, relative to both expectations and on an absolute basis, remain worryingly consistent. The currency didn't take any particular notice. But people already have the position. The options market is skewing more and more to euro downside. And it doesn't seem like there is much appetite, at this point, to add. Yesterday, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the "low-interest-phase is temporary." Traders are skeptical and EGBs have stayed bid.