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IPFS News Link • Politics: Democratic Campaigns

Odds of No Democratic Primary Winner Now Match Bernie's Chances

•, by Mish

Key Takeaways from This Morning

I see one clear winner and one runner-up winner. Neither is Bernie Sanders.
Senator Elizabeth Warren is crippled.
Warren may be crippled, but she is out for Bernie.
The New Hampshire Primary increases the odds of a contested convention.
A lot can happen, but the odds of no winner are now about 30% in my estimation. That is up from 25% in my previous forecast.
This afternoon, Nate Silver at 538 came out with its assessment Who Will Win The 2020

Democratic Primary?

Bernie Sanders: 36%

No One: 36%

Biden: 17%

Buttigieg: 5%

Bloomberg 4%

Warren 3%

Bernie's odds of winning outright dropped from 48% to 36%.