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IPFS News Link • Economy - Economics USA

There Is Something About This Crazy Treasury Move That Nobody Can Explain

• https://www.zerohedge.com, Tyler Durden

On this point, Jeff Gundlach predicted during his DoubleLine call yesterday that "the U.S. national debt likely to grow to $30 trillion in two or three years as spending explodes in response to the crisis", which means about $3-4 trillion in net issuance per year, and that upcoming supply tsunami is certainly sending bond prices lower, potentially dealing a deathly blow to the risk-parity/balanced "60/40" portfolio model.

Yet on the other hand, Treasury inflation breakevens have plunged to record lows as if the market is saying that despite this flood of new money, there will be no actual inflation as much as a decade in the future. To put it mildly, this is bizarre, and as BMO's Ian Lyngen writes this morning, "there are aspects of the overnight price action which resonate and others that confound. Mnuchin's dire warning that the unemployment rate could spike to 20% in the absence of government intervention to address the coronacrisis had the foreseeable impact on the equity market; limit down.


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