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IPFS News Link • Pandemic

Prof Who Predicted 500K UK Deaths Now Says Under 20K Will Die, Peak In Two Weeks

• https://www.zerohedge.com

Imperial College London's Neil Ferguson - who originally estimated 500,000 deaths in the UK due to Coronavirus, now says that the virus will peak in just two or three weeks, and that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, according to NewScientist.

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The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won't be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units. -NewScientist

Why the change of heart from Ferguson - who himself has contracted COVID-19?

Ferguson - whose 'Terrifying' research from just 10 days ago predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US and that the UK would need to be under quarantine for 18 months or more - now says that coronavirus will not overwhelm the UK's ICU beds, and that over 1/2 of those it will kill would have died by the end of the year anyway because they were so old and sick.

His reasoning is that estimates of the virus's transmissibility are much higher than previously thought - and that many more people have gotten it than we realize, making it less dangerous overall.

New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. "That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures," he said. -NewScientist


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