The Coronavirus first wave is ebbing across Northern Europe and New York. Nations are now contemplating limited economic reopening. Government bailouts, support packages and central bank QE infinity have handed markets an extraordinary boost – it's one of the biggest bull rallies on record!
Let joy be unconfined...
What's not to like?
Well... don't get me started. One of the big issues for markets is separating the news that actually matters from the stuff that is just news noise.
Real news is how effective the C-19 mitigation, QE-infinity and unlimited spending packages are likely to prove in the real world.
They are certainly working well for markets – which have arbitraged them to the max. The question is consequences – how much money will actually reach the real economy, how will it be spent, against how much will simply continue to fuel financial asset price inflation? All that money in financial markets keeps pushing up prices – just like tulips push out the ground. As long as central banks are willing to give a free put – does it matter for markets that economies are in free-fall? (I suspect.., at some point it will.) Mind the Gap.
Real news is that Oil prices didn't actually need a spat between Saud and Russia to tumble – it's the absolute dearth of demand for the black black oil that's killing prices. What does that tell us about the real prospects for the global economy? Oil prices plunge to 20-year low as virus hits demand.