The New Reality
"Denial is not just a river in Africa."
So Tesla bounced. Really...? Schroedinger's and all that....
I am going to try something different this morning. So please bear with, and let me know what you think..
I woke up with a headache – from thinking about where markets are going. Markets are very "complex" at the moment. There are a host of conflicting short, medium and long-term dynamics underway – which are happening and interreacting faster and with more impact than many of us have the capacity to understand. Try it. The speed of change is skipping by us – numbing us to many of changes going on around us.
I've tried to step back and figure it out… but tying together the contradictory bluster of market dynamics is going to take longer than the few hours I normally spend on the Porridge over a cup of tea each morning… So instead, I am just going to chuck a whole series of vaguely connected thoughts at my cell home office wall and see if some of them stick...
Here are some random(ish) thoughts about markets and politics….
Doesn't matter how serious Covid-19 has been. The effect has been to shock the global economy. The Pandemic detail is moving markets in the short-term, but also setting the narrative for the future. The effect of each new lockdown, vaccine hopes, or government failure on testing, can be seen daily. The longer-lasting effects on company plans and government spending will ultimately determine where the global economy goes.
Reality: Even after a cure, the Pandemic will remain an historical shock that's roiled short-term markets and set multiple long-term agenda. Stop denying it. Get used to it.