We give our best guess on reopening dates in this analysis.
When will economies be allowed to reopen? When are we without restrictions? We take a look at the Israeli case and conclude that 35-37% of the population needs to be vaccinated before a major breakthrough is seen. The UK will soon hit this benchmark, while the US and efficient EU countries will reach this benchmark in early April. We will be without (most) restrictions sooner than you think. The UK will likely soon move towards a swift reopening, US will follow around Easter, while continental Europe will follow in early May.
Key take aways from the analysis
-35-37% of the population needs to be vaccinated before a major breakthrough is seen based on the Israeli case
-UK will reach the threshold very soon, US in early April and continental Europe in early May.
-Nordic countries are better than EU averages when it comes to administering the vaccine roll-out
Most virologists are too pessimistic by now, and re-openings will likely be swifter than anticipated.