In its 276-page 2021 Annual Report, the Social Security Administrations projects a fiscal cliff starting in 2034.
The report dives into fertility assumptions, mortality assumptions, productivity assumptions, inflation assumption, tax contribution assumptions, etc.
Three Key Words
Social Security Costs vs. Non-Interest Income
Under the Trustees' intermediate assumptions, Social Security's total cost is projected to be higher than its total income in 2021 and all later years. Social Security's cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.
The reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds along with projected program income are sufficient to cover projected program cost over the next 10 years under the intermediate assumptions. However, the ratio of reserves to annual cost is projected to decline from 253 percent at the beginning of 2021 to 85 percent at the beginning of 2030.
Under the Trustees' intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost is projected to exceed total income in 2021, and the dollar level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2034.
OASI is Social Security and DI is the Social Security Disability Fund. They are separate programs but typically merged in discussion.