There are forces at work in both Congress and the Federal Reserve that could take us down radically different paths. There are also changes in the Zeitgeist, the way we act and think both in and as a society, that are going to have major impacts.
What I am not doing today is predicting the future. I am looking at events and saying if "this" happens we need to be prepared for it. I'm increasingly concerned we are in an economic situation with almost no wiggle room. We had serious issues before the pandemic which haven't gone away. Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus obscured this reality, but can't do so forever.
The late 2020 and early 2021 recovery was exactly that: a recovery from an exogenous event. It wasn't new, organic growth—or at least not most of it. Moreover, the "exogenous" event is proving less than exogenous. We have wonderful vaccines, very effective in preventing severe disease and death. They help protect the people who get them, but the macro benefit is limited because they aren't being administered widely enough and quickly enough. This limits global trade and travel, without which sustainable recovery is difficult.