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IPFS News Link • China

China's Population Continues to Collapse

•, by Brian Wang

Births in China could drop below 8 million this year, setting a record low and further clouding the country's gloomy demographic outlook, according to a leading medical academic Qiao Jie. The Peking University medical dean says more must be done to boost female fertility, with greater investments needed to increase research into disease prevention for women and children.

He Dan is quoted in the South China Morning Post is deluded into thinking that China would be able to sustain a population of over 1 billion by 2100. If the number of babies per year is 10 million per year for 80 years this would be 800 million. If the number of babies per year is 8 million per year for 80 years this would be 640 million. However, holding the number of babies stable would be difficult when the number of fertile women collapses.

There are currently 160 million potentially fertile women in the age range of 16-34. This will drop to 130 million potentially fertile women in 20 years. These are the girls 0-15 and the added 4 million female babies if there are 8 million babies per year. In 15 years after that, there would only be 70-80 million fertile women. The babies per year could drop to 3-4 million per year if those fertile women were having babies as the same rate as the women today. the number of female babies would drop to less than 2 million per year before 2058. If life expectancy was still 85 years then the population would be less than 400 million in 2100. If life expectancy was 20 years longer than there could be 200 million more people.

The 7-8 million per year would be one-third the number of babies born around 1990. The Chinese people born 30-34 years ago average about 22-23 million per year.