The bond market is getting hammered along with stocks but gold and bitcoin are on a tear and have been acting mostly together for months. Let's discuss what's going on.
TLT Weekly Technical Analysis
TLT is down almost 50 percent since early 2020.
Elliott Wave traced out five clean waves. This makes it an impulse wave not a correction. Wave three is usually the longest and strongest.
Wave fives can extend. So there is no clear technical reason to expect a bounce at this point but any bounce would tend to be a corrective bounce.
Deficits are soaring and there is no political will in Congress to change that.
The US is supporting two wars despite a huge basket of problems at home.
Budget infighting in Congress and Biden is requesting still more money.
The push for EVs is highly inflationary with questions about where minerals for batteries will come from.
The infrastructure is not remotely close to where it needs to be to support the EV revolution Biden wants.
Sentiment is sour and it should be. Attitudes are very much in play. A search for yield is now easy to find. People can get 5 percent on short-term treasuries so the prevailing attitude is not to go out on the curve with more risk.
No, it's not China dumping. But China is buying less treasuries and agencies than before due to improved US trade deficits with China.