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IPFS News Link • Robots and Artificial Intelligence

AI Chips Market Reaching $400+ Billion in 2027

• https://www.nextbigfuture.com, by Brian Wang

Their projections are for a far larger industry with more infrastructure by 2027.

Elon Musk had stated that AI compute was growing by 10X every 6 months, which would be faster than the New Street Projections.

New Street Resear Implications: we need to do a lot more work to quantify and lay out over time implications for all players involved (our research subscribers will get this detailed work!), but at a high level:
1) Nvidia and all other silicon suppliers would massively beat expectations, even if this scenario only partially materializes.
2) Hyperscalers would grow revenue much faster than currently anticipated and increase Capex intensity very materially. On a net basis, we would expect that to be a positive, as incremental investment of this size would fuel well-protected business franchises, on which monetizing incremental investments will be easy.
3) The pace of infrastructure deployment means it will not be a straight line. Capex will grow flat-out as long as usage and adoption grows faster than capacity deployments, but when these two lines cross, Capex will collapse, more or less violently, before normalizing.
4) Key question is: When and at what level does the bubble burst? Our view: a) 2024 is written on the wall, maxed out, and 2025 is so far shaping up as another very strong year. Pressure to invest is extreme. Bubble burst unlikely to happen before 2026. b) Absolute excess capacity is still very very far, the bubble could well burst long after 2027.

It is an attempt to project this rapidly growing area. If Elon is more right then the AI grows even faster.


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