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IPFS News Link • China

What A China-Taiwan Conflict Could Mean For Semiconductors, Gold

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In a pointed "celebration" of Lai's recent inauguration, Chinese military aircraft and warships have been conducting large-scale drills around the island. China considers Taiwan a strayed member of its territory and hasn't ruled out the use of force to assert its claim.

"China will surely be reunified," Chinese President Xi Jinping said in his New Year's address"Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."

Michael McCaul, U.S. House Foreign Affairs Chairman, told Fox that the recent Chinese demonstrations are the most "provocative" yet. If China attacked Taiwan, McCaul predicted during his visit to the region, "it would make Iran shooting into Israel look like child's play."

"I think right now, we will probably lose," he said.

One likely victim of such a conflict would be Taiwan's semiconductor industry, which holds about 70% of the world market share. Total industry value is expected to set a record this year at $630 billion—but that could change if China invades Taiwan and, as McCaul warns, "the island doesn't have the capacity to defend itself" or its industry.

"Everybody that has phones, cars—we have advanced weapons systems—everything's dependent on semiconductors and this island, over time, because we've offshored [manufacturing]," McCaul told Fox News Digital. "And the shutdown of what's happening [in Taiwan], semiconductors, would really shut down the world."

Changes in the market for semiconductors mean changes in the market for many base metals, including silicon, germanium, and gallium, all of which are critical components for semiconductor manufacturing. Gold is also a key component of the production process because of its anti-tarnishing properties.