CONNECTING THE DOTS
Frosty Wooldridge
More About: EnergyPeak Oil standing in America’s and world’s front window
In this continuing series, those readers that care about the
future of this civilization may enjoy top thinkers and writers that you won’t
find in the main stream media. I try to
bring you the most up to date and compelling research relevant today.
Jason G. Brent, a compelling demographic expert, speaks about
Peak Oil and population in this series. You may find his work also at www.countercurrents.org .
“Oil is a finite resource!” said
Brent. “Eventually the oil remaining on the planet will be exhausted and no
longer able to be used by humanity. Peak oil can be defined in two ways--- The
first way is when total amount of oil withdrawn from the earth for use by
humanity starts to decline; example--- in year one 100 barrels of oil are
withdrawn, in year two 120 barrels of oil are withdrawn, in year three 80
barrels of oil are withdrawn, and in year four 60 barrels are drawn – in this
example year two is the peak oil year since in years subsequent to year two the
amount of oil withdrawn goes down:
“ The second way is when oil withdrawn per capita starts to
decrease; example in year one 100 barrels of oil are withdrawn and there are
100 people on the Earth (one barrel per person), in year two 150 barrels of oil
are withdrawn and there are 120 people on the Earth (1.25 barrels per person),
and in year three 200 barrels of oil are withdrawn but the population has
increased to 500 people (0.4 barrels per person)--- in this example the peak
oil year is year two as the amount of oil withdrawn per capita has reached its
maximum in year two and has decreased in year three.
“Humanity will no longer be able to use the oil remaining on
the planet when one of two conditions exist--- the first condition, is when
wells are drilled and oil is not obtained from the wells or only a minimum
amount of oil is obtained; the second condition, when it takes more energy to
find, obtain, process, and deliver oil than the oil produces when it is used---
example, it takes 200 units of energy to find the oil, drill for it, process
it, and deliver it to where it is used but when it is used it only produces 100
units of energy.
“In this example it would not make sense to expend 200 units of
energy to obtain the oil when the oil only produced 100 units of energy. In
this example there may be substantial amounts of oil remaining on the planet,
but that oil would not be usable by humanity.
“According to the best statistics, peak oil per capita reached
in the 1970s and since that time the amount of oil produced per capita has gone
down and there is every indication that this trend will continue and continue
more steeply. Similarly, the amount of energy obtained from the burning of oil
in relation to the amount of energy used to obtain the oil has been going down
for the last few years as it has become more difficult to find, obtain, process
and deliver the oil. This fact can readily be seen from the increase in ocean
drilling and the increase in the depths to which wells must be driven in order
to obtain oil.
“There are only two major ways that international trade is
carried on--- by boat and plane. Goods cannot be shipped from North and South
America to Africa, Asia, Europe, or Australian by any means other than by boat
or plane. Similarly, all goods shipped to and from Australia have to be shipped
by boat or plane. While North and South America are connected by land, for all
practical purposes all goods between those two continents are likewise shipped
by boat or plane. For all practical purposes all goods shipped to and from
Africa are shipped by boat or plane. While I do not have exact figures, I would
estimate that at least 95% of all international trade is handled by boat and
plane.
“International trade is absolutely essential for the survival
of civilization. It is the only way that raw materials can be shipped from the
nations that have them to the nations that need them and it is the only way for
excess food produced by one nation to be shipped to another nation. Without
boats it would be impossible for the excess food created by the farmers of the
United States, Canada, and Argentina to be shipped to the nations that must
import food. Without boats it would be impossible for the excess rice produced
by Vietnam to be shipped to the Philippines which imports rice in order for its
population not to starve to death.
“Without boats it would be impossible for the industries of the
United States to continue to operate as the United States imports substantial
amounts of raw materials and ores needed by its industries. In simple terms,
without international trade all of our civilization would collapse within
months and billions would starve to death within a very short period of time.
“The question facing humanity is--- is there any energy source
which humanity can use in the future which will permit international trade to
continue once oil is no longer available to humanity? Regarding planes the only
energy source which combines the necessary criteria of weight and energy which
will permit planes to fly is oil. Coal will not do it, natural gas will not do
it, electric batteries will not do it, solar power will not do it, wind power
will not do it, atomic power will not do it, and everything else foreseeable
far into the future will not do it. Those of you who read the media may have
read a few months ago of a plane that was flown with a combination of oil from
the ground and oil created from plant material.
“However, oil created from plant material will never be able
alone or even in conjunction with oil from the ground to provide the necessary
energy and be sufficient in amount to permit international trade to continue by
plane. In simple terms, the only energy source which will permit planes to fly
internationally is oil and once oil is exhausted that portion of international
trade will no longer exist. Once oil is exhausted nothing humanity can do will
permit planes to fly.
“Now let us examine the types of energy which will or will not
permit international trade by boat to continue once oil is exhausted. If
humanity attempted to use oil made from plant material in an amount sufficient
to permit international trade by boat to continue there would not be enough
plant material left on the planet to provide food for humanity. Therefore, oil
made from plant material cannot be considered an alternative to oil obtained
from the ground. Sailing ships could not carry a sufficient amount of cargo and
be fast enough to permit international trade by boat to continue on the level
which is necessary for our civilization to continue.
“Therefore, sailing ships cannot be considered an alternative
to oil powered cargo ships. Coal could be used for a short period of time as a
substitute for oil. However, coal itself is finite and eventually will be
exhausted. However, that is not the main reason why coal is not a viable
alternative to oil. The main reason that coal is not a viable alternative to
oil is that it is highly polluting and if all cargo ships were converted to
coal the output of carbon dioxide would cause a very substantial rise in
temperature.
“In addition, coal is a very dirty fuel. Lastly, coal could not
be used in cruise ships and that would destroy the cruise industry. Therefore,
as a practical matter coal cannot be considered an alternative to oil in the
area of international trade by boat. Some cargo ships could be converted to
atomic power. Here too there are many problems with converting cargo carriers
to atomic power---a) it would be very expensive, if not impossibly expensive,
to convert all the necessary cargo ships to atomic power; b) there is a limited
amount of uranium fuel and it is highly unlikely that a sufficient amount of
fuel could be produced to power the large amount of cargo ships necessary for
international trade by boat to continue for many years into the future; c)
there would be a major fuel disposal problem similar to the problem we
presently see in land based electric power plants; d) in addition to the fuel
disposal problem, there would be a major problem when the ships were no longer
serviceable and had to be taken out of service; and e) it is highly unlikely
that the smaller cargo ships and coastal freighters could be converted to
atomic power.
“Therefore, it is highly unlikely that atomic power will be a
viable alternative to oil. Major cargo ships powered by batteries or other
forms of electric power should not be considered an alternative to oil powered
cargo ships. Similarly, it is highly unlikely that solar power will provide an
alternative to oil power. Likewise, it is highly unlikely that natural gas will
be an alternative to oil. Based upon the foregoing analysis, it would be the
height of folly for humanity to believe that anything other than oil can be
used to power cargo ships in amount sufficient for international trade by boat
to continue at a level which will permit civilization to survive and to prevent
the horrific starvation deaths of billions of our species.
“Based upon the foregoing analysis humanity must plan its
future on the assumption that international trade will be dramatically reduced
once oil is exhausted. A dramatic reduction in international trade must be
followed by a dramatic reduction in the human population and the collapse of
civilization. Humanity has a choice – reduce population before international
trade collapses using the intelligence of humanity or suffer the horrors of the
dramatic drop in population caused by the destruction of civilization and the
starvation of billions of humans.”
##
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2 Comments in Response to Peak Oil standing in America’s and world’s front window
This article is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read on Freedom's Phoenix. This speaker, Brent, starts out with a few "definitions" and a lot of lies, and then goes on to make dozens of unsupported (and unsupportable) assumptions, claims, and more bald-faced lies. He shows absolutely no knowledge whatsoever of engineering or basic science, is preaching a pure "environist" (environmentalism without the "mental" part) doctrine, and expects people to swallow it? Please. There is no "peak oil" as normally defined: his definitions are garbage. There is no finite supply (in human terms) of oil or gas on this planet, any more than there is a finite supply of sunlight. This sort of fearmongering is just what the environists and a good many other cabals want, and Brent apparently is either a dupe or one of them.
Looks like some one needs to do more research. Check out "peak oil is a myth". You will find that oil is not running out. Or that it came from fossils. Look up the origin of the term 'fossil fuels' & the idea that it came from decaying matter.
Ukrainian & Soviet scientists blew those propaganda pieces away some years ago.
SamFox