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Part 2: Scarcity: Humanity’s Final Chapter?

Book review—Scarcity: Humanity’s Final Chapter? by Chris O. Clugston
Part: 2: NNR scarcity is the most daunting challenge every to confront humanity. If we Homo sapiens are truly an exceptional species, now is the time to prove it.
If you keep digging down toward the bottom of a popcorn bucket at the movies, eventually, you run out of popcorn to eat.  It’s that simple.  We face limits for everything on this planet.  The more of us using those finite supplies known as non-renewable resources (NNRs), the faster they run out.
“Absent some combination of immediate and drastic reductions in our global NNR utilization levels,” said Clugston, “continuous major discoveries of economically viable NNR deposits, and continuous major improvements in our NNR exploration, extraction, production and processing technologies—none of which appear to be even remotely possible—we will experience escalating international and intra-national conflicts during the coming decades over increasingly scarce NNRs, which will devolve into global societal collapse, almost certainly by the year 2050.”
As a six continent world bicycle traveler, I think Clugston may be too optimistic.  Our world water supplies diminish more quickly than other NNRs as we add 80 million more humans annually, 1 billion more every 12 years—on our way to adding 3 billion by mid century to reach 10.1 billion—on our way to ever higher numbers of humans. “Dicey” can’t describe what we face.
Author of Overshoot, William R. Catton Jr., wrote a telling pre-obituary of America’s and the world’s sobering future, “Politicians speak of the “American Dream” that involves a birth-right expectation of more and more.  What we have done to this planet on which we all depend has now committed us to a future of  less and less. In terms of self-inflicted diminishing NNRs, the predicament humanity now confronts cannot be dispelled by patriotic slogans or glowing political and corporate promises.   Pretending we can perpetuate our habitual extravagant prodigality by striving for “resource self-sufficiency” is flagrant self-deception. It worsens rather than mitigates our real predicament.  We will aggravate, not alleviate, the hardships toward which we are rushing.”
I read Catton’s brilliant book: Overshoot.  He shows how we will be forced to live without “the oil energy slave” and how we must try to feed our 7.1 to 10.1 billion fellow humans without tractors or harvesting equipment.  Why?  You cannot drive a tractor that you can’t fill with gasoline.
Clugston talks about the two major shocks that rocked humanity’s worldview: first, the Earth turned out to be round instead of flat.
Second, the Earth is not the center of the universe.  We face the third shock: “We will soon discover that we can no longer provide for continuously improving material living standards for ever-increasing numbers of our ever-expanding global population.  The Earth no longer contains enough non-renewable resources.”
"Unlimited population growth cannot be sustained; you cannot sustain growth in the rates of consumption of resources. No species can overrun the carrying capacity of a finite land mass. This Law cannot be repealed and is not negotiable.” Dr. Albert Bartlett, www.albartlett.org , University of Colorado, USA.
In the face of our impending consequences, I find it manically comical that every politician and business leader espouses “growth” ; “recovery”; “swinging for the fences with our market economy” and other such expansion words.  You will find politicians asking people to “conserve water” ; “recycle your paper, cans and plastic” but the fact remains that no one entertains “10 cent deposit return laws” or any other economic incentives. Thus, 70 percent of our waste lands up in dumps or dumped into our oceans.
“As an example, NNRs comprise 95 percent of the raw material inputs to the US economy each year,” said Clugston.  “America uses 6.5 billion tons of newly mined NNRs per annum—an inconceivable 162,000 percent increase since the year 1800—which equates to 43,000 pounds yearly per U.S. citizen.  Unfortunately, NNRs are finite and increasingly scarce.”
For example, China already living beyond its carrying capacity, buys land in Asia, Africa and South America to feed its burgeoning growth at eight million, net gain annually, on its way from 1.3 billion to 1.5 billion within the next 37 years.  India grows by 11 million annually on its way to 1.55 billion population by mid century. Obviously, they cannot sustain their populations as they exceed their “carrying capacity” in 2013, but keep exploding their populations.
As to NNRs, we humans burn 84 million barrels of oil today, but by 2030, China expects to burn 98 million barrels of oil daily. (Source: The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler)  When you realize that we add 1 billion humans every 12 years, how will we be able to extract 84 + 98=182 million and as high as 230 million barrels of oil daily before the mid century when humans reach 10 billion population?
By 2008, NNRs scarcity became epidemic:
·        Sixty- eight of the 89 NNRs that enable our modern industrial existence—including bauxite, copper, iron/steel, manganese, natural gas, oil, phosphate rock, potash, rare minerals and zinc—were scarce in 2008.
Consequences of NNR Scarcity
“Humanity’s fate was sealed in the 18th century, at the inception of our industrial revolution,” said Clugston. “The NNR genie had been let out of the bottle and could not be put back.  The episode of epidemic NNR scarcity that occurred in 2008 was merely a harsh reminder that unprecedented population levels and material living standards associated with our temporary ear of industrialism are coming to and end.”
We must fundamentally change our existing unsustainable natural resource utilization behavior and transition voluntarily to a sustainable lifestyle paradigm over the next several decades.  If not, “Global competition for increasingly scarce natural resources will escalate into resource wars, which will escalate into global societal collapse by the middle of 21st century, under the optimistic scenario,” said Clugston.
Part 3: We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestor; we borrow it from our children.
Scarcity: Humanity Final Chapter
Author: Christopher O. Clugston
Foreword by William R. Catton, Jr.
Publisher: www.Booklocker.com , Port Charlotte, Florida
ISBN#: 978-1-62141-250-2
Price: $19.95
In a five minute astoundingly simple yet brilliant video, “Immigration, Poverty, and Gum Balls”, Roy Beck, director of www.numbersusa.ORG, graphically illustrates the impact of overpopulation.  Take five minutes to see for yourself:
“Immigration by the numbers—off the chart” by Roy Beck
This 10 minute demonstration shows Americans the results of unending mass immigration on the quality of life and sustainability for future generations: in a few words, “Mind boggling!”  www.NumbersUSA.org
This is the best website to start:  www.numbersusa.org ; watch Roy Beck’s “Immigration by the Numbers” at 14 minutes. Bi-partisan and very effective. Become a faxer of pre-written letters to your reps to make positive  change.
Visit www.TheSocialContract.com for the best information on what we face as a civilization as to overpopulation, energy, immigration and much more.
Canada www.immigrationwatchcanada.org ; in Australia www.population.org.au andPublicPopForum@yahoogroups.com; in Great Britain www.populationmatters.org ; and dozens of other sites accessed at www.frostywooldridge.com.   In Florida, www.flimen.org .
Must see DVD: "Blind Spot" www.snagfilms.com/films/title/blind_spot/ , This movie illustrates America's future without oil, water and other resources to keep this civilization functioning. It's a brilliant educational movie! www.blindspotdoc.com
Must see: Rapid Population Decline, seven minute video by Dr. Jack Alpert-
Dave Gardner, President, Citizen-Powered Media ; Producing the Documentary, GROWTH BUSTERS; presents Hooked on Growth: Our Misguided Quest for Prosperity, Join the cause at www.growthbusters.org ;760 Wycliffe Drive, Colorado Springs, CO 80906 USA; +1 719-576-5565
Trailer to his latest movie on overpopulation:  http://youtu.be/KLWxWOcUrVc
Check out this link with Wooldridge on bicycle and Lester Brown and panel discussion:
Tomorrow's Americaproject on www.youtube.com/contemporarylearning.
Producer: GEORGE A. COLBURNwww.tomorrowsamerica.com
DC: 202-258-4887
Link to www.tomorrowsamerica.com for more discussions on America's predicament.
Alexandra Paul talks about human overpopulation and saving our world by all women having 1 child only:
One planet, one child:
This film will rock you:  MOTHER: CARING FOR 7 BILLION  
Dr. Jack Alpert , www.skil.org
Too Many People Video series
How Much Degrowth is Enough?     "NEW"                 Sept. 2012
Overpopulation Means Civilization Collapse                Aug. 2011
Frosty Wooldridge has bicycled across six continents - from the Arctic to the South Pole - as well as eight times across the USA, coast to coast and border to border. In 2005, he bicycled from the Arctic Circle, Norway to Athens, Greece. In 2012, he bicycled coast to coast across America.  He presents “The Coming Population Crisis facing America: what to do about it.”  www.frostywooldridge.com .  His latest book is: How to Live a Life of Adventure: The Art of Exploring the World by Frosty Wooldridge, copies at 1 888 280 7715/ Motivational program: How to Live a Life of Adventure: The Art of Exploring the World by Frosty Wooldridge, click:  www.HowToLiveALifeOfAdventure.com
Live well, laugh often, celebrate daily and enjoy the ride,
Frosty Wooldridge
Golden, Colorado
6 Continent world bicycle traveler
Order these unique cards today: http://www.howtolivealifeofadventure.com/