As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump correctly called the economy a "big, fat, ugly bubble." The bubble is now much bigger, but President Trump has stamped his name on it. Interest rates are now rising. Is the end of the everything bubble near?
The general belief among average citizens is that the purpose of central banks is to help the economy by fighting inflation and mitigating financial crisis. It's a fairy tale that politicians like to encourage. If there were any truth to it, howeve
The Powell Fed has set one goal and one goal only for its policy… Hitting the "neutral rate of interest." The neutral rate of interest is when the Fed has rates equal to the pace of inflation. While this is technicallywhat the Fed is SUPPOSED
Every month, the NY Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations. The lead chart is from the Fed, I created the others
Former Fed Chair Yellen promotes "Lower for Longer", a policy in which the Fed knowingly keeps interest rates too low.
The Fed's increasing reliance on the asset price channel of the monetary transmission mechanism over the past decade has been to "jack up" or inflate assets, hoping the "wealth effect" stimulates aggregate demand. Household net worth is n
Two months after a near record surge in consumer credit driven by a spike in credit card debt, the US consumer went into a period hibernation to start the summer, when total consumer credit rose by just $8.5 billion in June, with revolving, or credit
President Donald Trump sparked controversy -- as is his wont -- when he recently told CNBC that he was "not thrilled" with the Federal Reserve's announced hikes in short-term interest rates, which he claimed would hinder the economic expansio
I recently penned an article which discussed the Fed and the risk of a monetary policy error in the future.
I hate to break it to you, but the everything bubble isn't permanent. OK, I get it-the Bull Market in stocks is permanent. Bulls will be chortling in 2030 that skeptics have been wrong for 22 years an entire generation. Bonds will also be hi
Fans of HBO's hit series, Game of Thrones, know well the motto of House Stark: "Winter is Coming." This motto warns of impending doom, whether brought on by the Starks themselves, devastating multi-year, cold weather, or something far more omin
The growth rate of Americans' spending has slowed in the last three months (to +0.4% MoM as expected in July) and income growth has slowed, up just 0.3% MoM in July (below expectations of +0.4%).
Hallelujah, the US stock market is once again at an all-time high thanks to a little help from our friends at the Federal Reserve.
Peter Schiff, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis has said in a recent podcast that the Federal Reserve is going to let the "inflation genie out of the bottle." And Schiff says this warning comes directly from the Fed's own chai
Judging by historically low-interest rates, investors, ourselves included, are not concerned that the U.S. government will default. Given the government has a printing press, we see little reason for such a concern...That said, we are greatly worried
USD stuck "sideways to lower"--and that is a 'risk-asset' positive, with Commodities higher for five of the past six sessions / EEM 'up' seven of the past eight sessions
It doesn't matter which stage of life you happen to be in, the Fed is ripping you off. Being forced to use a currency that is perpetually losing value, until it loses all value is a terrible deal. Money must return to its rightful place in the market
President Donald Trump said he expected Jerome Powell to be a cheap-money Fed chairman and lamented to wealthy Republican donors at a Hamptons fundraiser on Friday that his nominee instead raised interest rates, according to three people present.
President Trump's recent Tweets expressing displeasure with the Federal Reserve's (minor) interest rate increases led to accusations that President Trump is undermining the Federal Reserve's independence. But, the critics ignore the fact that F
Currently, investors appear to be covering their eyes, ears, and mouths and ignoring the Federal Reserve's (Fed) determination to increase interest rates. This divergence of outlooks between investors and the Fed is a stark departure from the finan
The Federal Reserve's new chairman made his stance on cryptocurrency clear to the US House of Representatives on Wednesday. In his view, cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value, are not used often as a means of payment, are not a store of value, b
One month ago, before the recent collapse in China's stock market and the plunge in emerging market currencies, the head of the Reserve Bank of India, Urjit Patel wrote an FT op-ed in which he issued a stark warning: "given the rapid rise in the size
The US stock market loved Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Tuesday testimony to the Senate Banking Committee as the recently-installed Fed chair affirmed that the US economic expansion is chugging along, and that inflation is growing in line
Abolish the Federal Reserve...Regular readers have heard Doug Casey make this suggestion many times. He's been arguing in favor of this for years.
State-by-State the horrendous "Drug War" is finally coming to an end. It's never easy to being the first to do the right thing. Most wait until the coast-is-clear. But now the momentum is strong.
Alpine Macro put together an interesting set of charts with commentary. Let's take a look.
Fed Minutes Show Concern Over Trump's Tariffs in Otherwise Bullish Assessment. Please consider Minutes of the June 12-13, 2018 FOMC Meeting released today. Tariff Concern
The financial system is in trouble.
Thanks to the Trump fiscal stimulus, the economy may be decoupling from the rest of the world...