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FEATURE ARTICLE |
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How Does Gold Fare During Hyperinflationary Periods?
Jeff Clark Date: 06-22-2012 Subject: Casey Research Articles Inflation is a natural consequence of loose government monetary
policy. If those policies get too loose, hyperinflation can occur. As
gold investors, we'd like to know if the precious metals would keep pace
in this extreme scenario. Hyperinflation is an extremely rapid
period of inflation, but when does inflation (which can be manageable)
cross the line and become out-of-control hyperinflation? Philip Cagan,
one of the very first researchers of this phenomenon, defines
hyperinflation as "an inflation rate of 50% or more in a single month,"
something largely inconceivable to the average investor. While
there can be multiple reasons for inflation, hyperinflation historically
has one root cause: excessive money supply. Debts and deficits reach
unsustainable levels, and politicians resort to diluting the currency to
cover their expenses. A tipping point is reached, and investors lose
confidence in the currency. "Confidence" is the key word here.
Fiat money holds its purchasing power largely on the belief that it is
stable and will preserve that power over time. Once this trust is
broken, a flight from the currency ensues. In such scenarios, citizens
spend the money as quickly as possible, typically buying tangible items
in a desperate attempt to get rid of currency units before they lose
value. This process increases the velocity of money, setting off a
vicious cycle that destroys purchasing power faster and faster. The
most famous case of hyperinflation is the one that occurred in Germany
during the Weimar Republic, from January 1919 until November 1923.
According to Investopedia, "the average price level increased by a factor of 20 billion, doubling every 28 hours." One
would expect gold to fare well during such an extreme circumstance, and
it did â€" in German marks, quite dramatically. In January 1919, one
ounce of gold traded for 170 marks; by November 1923, that same ounce was worth 87 trillion marks. Take a look. (Click on image to enlarge) Inflation
was at first benign, then began to grow rapidly, and quickly became a
monster. What's important to us as investors is that the price of gold
grew faster than the rate of monetary inflation. The data here reveal
that over this five-year period, the gold price increased 1.8 times more than the inflation rate. The
implication of this is sobering: while hyperinflation wiped out most
people's savings, turning wealthy citizens into poor ones literally
overnight, those who had assets denominated in gold experienced no loss in purchasing power. In fact, their ability to purchase goods and services grew beyond the runaway prices they saw all around them. One
can't help but wonder how the people whose wealth evaporated in Germany
during this time felt. In effect, they were robbed by the government â€"
they were on the losing end of a massive transfer of wealth. Of course,
there are two sides to the story, as those who held significant amounts
of gold and silver were the recipients. We can't help but
speculate about whether most citizens dismissed the idea of inflation
during the calm period in 1920-'21. Did respected economists scoff at
the idea that Germany could suffer hyperinflation, just before it
struck? Did some politicians proclaim that "a little inflation would be
good?" Those who today argue that our obscene debt levels, runaway
deficit spending, and money-printing schemes are sound strategies and
believe they won't lead to out-of-control inflation might want to
rethink those beliefs. We've seen this movie before: it doesn't have a
happy ending. The historical record is clear on what happens when
countries embark on fiscal and monetary paths today's leading economies
are embracing. If gold's recent price performance is anything like the
calm before Germany's hyperinflationary storm, this is a time to be
accumulating more gold. Keep in mind that hyperinflation is not a
rare event. Since Weimar Germany, there have been 29 additional
hyperinflations around the world, including those in Austria, Argentina,
Greece, Mexico, Brazil, Taiwan, and Zimbabwe, to name a few. On
average, that's one every three years or so. While hyperinflation
devastates those who experience it, there is a healing aspect to it.
Since the responsibility for this type of disaster lies solely at the
feet of government, there may be some Darwinian justice to the way
hyperinflation purges the perverse fiscal and monetary imbalances from
an economy. After the Weimar Republic hyperinflation, the second half of
the 1920s was a strong period for Germany, with low inflation and
steady growth. It's no secret that many currencies around the
world, including the US dollar, are choosing the path of inflation. If
we were to slip into hyperinflation, there will be disastrous
consequences for those unprepared. Given that the US dollar is the
world's reserve currency, the problems would spread to practically every
country on earth. Hyperinflation will shake people's confidence not
only in the US dollar, but in the paper currency system as a whole. What
will actually come to pass, we don't know. What we do know is that the
measures to cure hyperinflation include tying the currency to a hard
asset or even replacing it with one. When creditability in fiat money
dissipates, gold may be the only viable option left standing. Again, the investment implication is obvious: continue to accumulate gold. How
much is enough? Well, how many ounces do you own in relation to your
total assets? Anything less than 5% will not offer you a sufficient
level of protection in a high inflationary environment. Another
way to look at it is this: how many ounces do you need to cover your
monthly expenses? In Weimar Germany, inflation rose uncomfortably for
two years â€" and then pinched harder, spiraling into a destructive
hyperinflation for another two. Consider what it would take to maintain
your standard of living for a couple years instead of just a couple
months. And don't listen to any government's ongoing
pronouncements of confidence in the current system, along with the
mainstream media's noisy and frequently inaccurate portrayals of the
gold market. (For example, these two headlines appeared on the same day: Gold Edges Lower as Worries over Europe Simmer; and Gold Settles Higher on Spanish Bailout Plans.)
In a world awash in ignorance about real money, if not deliberate
obfuscation, you have to study the relevant history, draw your own
conclusions, and stick with them. This example shows how gold can
perform during hyperinflation. If that worst-case scenario comes to
pass, will the example your family's finances sets be a positive or a
negative one? Don't let your family be one of the millions slowly being robbed by the US federal government's policies that are, among other things, eroding the value of its dollar. Start
preparing yourself now, and you can not just survive what looks to be
ahead â€" you and your family can thrive. And that, ultimately, is what
investing is all about. |