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Why Are We Certain that Gold Producers Will Soar?
Jeff Clark Date: 06-27-2012 Subject: Casey Research Articles For the past eighteen months, gold stocks have been pummeled. They
showed some life from mid-May to mid-June â€" GDX, the gold miner's
index, was up 21%, while gold rose 5.5%. That bounce was exciting, but
they've still got a lot of lost ground to make up. Since January 1,
2011, GDX is down 28%, while gold is up 10%. So what's going to move these darn stocks? Will their day ever come? Could our research â€" gulp â€" be wrong? Jokes have even started circulating… Laugh or cry, underneath this heap of stock-certificate debris is the contrarian opportunity of a lifetime. That's
a strong statement, I know, but there are numerous well-researched
reasons why I'm convinced gold stocks are one spark away from igniting
the portfolios of those with the cash to buy, courage to act, and
patience to hold. And it's not just because they're undervalued,
something that's been the case for at least eight months. Let's review the core reasons why gold stocks are the place to invest right now, and why I'm convinced much higher prices will be had before this bull market is over… Reason #1: Gold stocks have leverage to gold bullion prices. In spite of what's occurred recently, history is on our side here, as
the track record of precious metals equities demonstrates they can
reward patient investors tremendously. They rose: It's
normal for gold stocks to demonstrate this kind of leverage to gold. It
would completely contradict the historical pattern â€" and common sense â€"
for gold stocks remain where they are until this bull market ends. (And
sometimes, even when the price of gold bullion falls, gold stocks can
still offer big upside. Case in point: in the 24 months from January 1,
1981 to January 1, 1983, while the price of gold bullion fell by 25% â€"
from $597 to $446 â€" gold stocks rose 72%. A series of giant gold discoveries in Canada set off a mini-mania in the equities.) Check out the historical record, which includes some mind-boggling performances by juniors. Reason #2: Gold stocks are grossly undervalued. Gold stocks aren't just inexpensive, they're stupid cheap. Their current undervaluation is more than just compelling… it's fire-sale attractive. It should have your full attention. Just look at the data and you'll see what I mean: This
undervaluation cannot and will not last. Even the trader who knows
nothing about Newmont or Barrick or Goldcorp will sooner or later want
to jump on this â€" and if he doesn't, his boss will want to know why. Read what one Sprott fund manager thinks about gold stocks. Reason #3: Gold stocks are universally under-owned. There
are plenty of reports about how little gold and silver the average
mainstream investor owns â€" which likely means they own even less of gold
equities. But the disconnect is bigger than you realize… In
the institutional world, pension funds sit at the head of the table.
However, the typical fund devotes only 3% to commodities, and of that
3%, only 5% is committed to gold and gold stocks. In other words, only
0.15% of assets are in gold and another 0.15% in gold mining stocks, a pathetic total of less than one-third of one percent. Ditto other institutional investors. Given
the gamut of sovereign risks in virtually the entire world, even the
developed world, the lack of gold and gold stock ownership is appalling.
That will change as the growing fiat currency risks around the world
impact investors more deeply. Reason #4: All that cash has gotta go somewhere. It's one thing to say gold stocks are under-owned, but is the money
available to buy them? One could make an argument that any rush into
gold equities would be muted if no one has any savings or if
demographics dictate that a fifth of the developed world will soon be
retired. At the end of Q1, S&P 500
corporations had $1.7 trillion in cash and another $4 trillion in
short-term investments. The M1 money supply is currently $2.2 trillion.
Pension assets exceed $31 trillion, more than twice the size of last
year's GDP in the US. Contrast those
figures with the market cap of all primary gold producers trading in
North America: about $800 billion. Or the market cap of all primary
silver producers: a measly $32 billion. Check out the chart of these data.
And by the way, don't forget other corporations in the US and around
the world, insurance companies, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds,
mutual funds, private equity funds, private wealth funds, ETFs, and
millions of global retail investors. There are, quite literally, tons of
cash available for investment in whatever sector the mainstream
targets. What if they all enter the gold market at or near the same time? Reason #5: Physical gold may become hard to get. The gap between supply and demand isn't letting up. Since 2001,
worldwide production is flat, despite a sixfold increase in the gold
price â€" and demand has grown from $3 billion to $80 billion. I'm
in touch with bullion dealers on a regular basis, and they're all
saying the same things. Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin insisted that
the bullion market "will ultimately be defined by complete lack of
available supply." Border Gold's Michael Levy cautioned, "If an
overwhelming loss of confidence in the US unfolds, the demand for
physical gold and silver will far outweigh all known inventories." And
Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com warned that if shortages develop,
"physical bullion coins and bars might become unobtainable regardless of
price." As increasing numbers of
people view gold as a must-own asset, and as supply is not keeping up
with demand, where is the next logical place for investors to turn to
get exposure? Gold stocks. Imagine
the plight of the mainstream investor who calls a bullion dealer and is
told they have no inventory and don't know when they'll get any.
Picture those with wealth finally becoming convinced they must own
precious metals and being informed they'll have to put their name on a
waiting list. Imagine a pension fund or other institutional investor
scrambling to get more metal for its fund and being advised the amount
it wants is "currently unavailable." Mining
equities would be the fastest way to meet that demand. It'll be the
next logical step to take â€" maybe the only sensible step available if
the supply of physical metal remains constrained. It will feel like the
most natural thing in the world for them to do. It is indeed the overlooked reason gold stocks will soar. Reason #6: Gold has a lot further to climb. This is why I'm convinced gold stocks will soar again: a rising gold
price. Many investors have focused on gold's lackluster movement for the
past eight months, forgetting that it rose a total of 2,333% in the
1970s â€" with much less currency dilution than we have today. For gold to
match the same percentage rise from its 2001 low, the price would hit
$6,227 per ounce. Nothing says it has to match that price â€" but neither
does it have to stop there. Given the ongoing caustic actions of
politicians, we see much more upside risk in gold than downside. And
here's the key for gold stocks: once the gold price resumes its uptrend
and begins making new records again, all sorts of investors â€" from
large market-moving institutions to small retail buyers â€" will return to
gold equities. I suggest beating them to it. Reason #7: "The boat" has a leak. The dilution of our currency is on a nonstop â€" and scary â€" trajectory.
Just since January 1, 2000, US dollars have lost a whopping 26% in
purchasing power. The Canadian dollar has lost 23%. This is a serious
and gross devaluation of what we use for money. Meanwhile, gold has
gained 325% in purchasing power (after accounting for inflation as
measured by the CPI, which understates the amount of inflation by a
considerable amount). And this is while the gold price has gone nowhere
since last September. The problem is,
the leak in our economy is only going to get bigger. The monetary base
now exceeds $2.6 trillion, up 215% since January 2008; the national debt
is over $15.7 trillion and will conservatively reach $20 trillion in
just three years; the $1.3-trillion US budget deficit, which is more
than the entire US budget was just 20 years ago; the
approximate $4 trillion in US Treasuries held in foreign central banks,
many of which continue making arrangements to bypass the dollar; the
vulnerable and propped-up economies around the globe; the
still-unresolved European debt crisis; the many negative real interest
rates that show no sign of reversing course anytime soon. These
are massive megatrends that won't be reconciled without further,
serious dilution of the currency â€" it's the only politically acceptable
way to decrease the debt burden. This is why we're convinced more
money-printing in the US and around the world is highly likely â€" whether
they call it "quantitative easing" or try to hide it under some other
guise â€" especially if we get another deflationary scare. With the only
logical choice being to print, gold will be forced higher by an order of
magnitude. I say all this about gold
because I think that is the key to gold stocks. If gold and silver are
destined for higher levels, gold stocks will follow. I know they haven't
demonstrated that for a while now, but slumps don't last forever. The
bottom line is this: Gold stocks do respond when gold goes higher â€" and
gold is going higher because of completely unsustainable fiscal and
monetary actions of governments all around the world. So, will
gold stocks really soar again someday? The historical record of gold
stock manias… the extreme undervaluation of gold equities… the lack of
mainstream participation in our market… the abundance of available cash…
dwindling supply and rising demand… the massive disconnect between gold
and gold stocks… the likely trajectory of the gold price… and last but
not least, the political compulsion to dilute the currency further… all
these factors point to an incredible opportunity to buy gold stocks at
extremely low levels and someday realize potentially life-changing
rewards. Hang in there, my friends. Our time will come. In fact, I
predict that someday we'll wonder why anyone doubted it in the first
place. Being a successful investor in this sector requires much
more than simply buying some companies â€" one must sift through company
data and filter the hype to uncover those with the best chance of
producing outsized gains. That's exactly what Jeff Clark and his team do
to bring the best gold majors to light each month in BIG GOLD. Right now, for a limited time, when you subscribe risk-free to BIG GOLD, you'll receive a bonus special report highlighting the most promising and least risky gold stocks to buy. Get the details now. |