It is unsurprising that the world should be incredulous at the explanations given by the Turkish Government as to the origins, sponsors, and actions of the putsch which was attempted against it on the night of July 15-16, 2016. Indeed, the great difficulty is to avoid considering the "conspiracy theory" that the entire event had been orchestrated by Pres. Reçep Tayyip Erdogan himself.

We have discussed the entire incident in separate analysis, taking on face value the events as reported, and the ramifications. The event was cut from whole cloth. It was too perfect, and the responses too com-plete. Its outcome could not have been more favorable to the President and his ambitions.

And as with all conjuring, the audience was complicit, and the scale of the deception bold and outside the scale of comprehension of Turkey's traditional allies and supporters. What Erdogan did and achieved — regardless of whether he had staged the patently-unworkable putsch himself — was breathtaking in its scope and objectives, and was initially successful in consolidating his power and removing Turkey from the secular, Western-oriented path of the President's nemesis, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

The fact that the leaders of the putsch have not been credibly identified (some officers have been blamed, true, and some military personnel went along with the affair, believing it to be a genuine attempt to over-throw the President), and the blame so laughably assigned to convenient "enemies", makes it necessary to question the reality of events in Turkey before, during, and after the incident.

Whatever actually happened, it is clear that Pres. Erdogan has — with the catalyst of the alleged putsch — completely transformed the strategic position of Turkey: its alliances and dependencies; its chances for survival, and the fate of the region which is vital not only to its inhabitants, but as a nexus of global trade. The Russian Government knows very well just how mercurial Pres. Erdogan has been, and how he has tried — and failed — to confront Russia strategically. It was Russia which essentially defeated Turkey in Syria and Iraq, and possibly in the Caucasus and Balkans.

To cut through the niceties of the transformation, Pres. Erdogan has nominally capitulated to Moscow, even though he uses the old Soviet mechanism of "peaceful coexistence" (cooperation publicly; confronta-tion discreetly) in his new relationship with Russia. Hitler and Stalin each employed this stratagem against each other. Russia today is under no illusions that the Turkish President has suddenly become its friend, and Moscow will not let down its guard. But it cannot ignore the reality that Turkey's capitulation, for whatev-er reason, must be seized.

What are some "take-aways" from what has happened?

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