On Tuesday, Donald Trump will discover whether his weekend struggles were a speed bump — or the first signs of larger troubles ahead.

If the polls are to believed, Trump is in for a dominant day, with blowouts in Michigan and Mississippi to be complemented by another win in Idaho. If Trump falls short, and particularly if he falls short to Ted Cruz for the second time in four days, the businessman's delegate math gets more complicated, and the soothsayers who've long predicted Trump's collapse will finally see hope for vindication.

For the first time since Iowa, a non-Trump Republican took home the day's largest haul of delegates last weekend, as Cruz on Saturday won handily in Maine and Kansas and ran a close second in Louisiana and Kentucky. Repeating that feat Tuesday would put more momentum behind the Texas senator's campaign and strengthen his case as the GOP's best, only hope of nominating someone other than Trump.

A relative lack of polling adds unpredictability to Tuesday's votes. While Michigan has been heavily surveyed, Hawaii has gone uncovered, and sparse polls in Mississippi and Idaho are now out of date. Trump had large leads in past surveys, but they were conducted before Marco Rubio and several super PACs went all-out against Trump, before two raucous anti-Trump debates and before his losses to Cruz on Saturday.

If Trump falls short of expectations, he'll have a chance to make amends during the next week's winner-take-all delegate bonanza in Ohio and Florida. But if he wants to bury Cruz and avoid a delegate-by-delegate slog to the convention, Tuesday's races seem like a solid place to start.