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IPFS News Link • Central Banks/Banking

Diving Into the IMF's Global Housing Update: Bubbles and Busts

• mishtalk.com by Mish

The index shows sixteenth consecutive quarters of positive year-on-year growth. However, house prices are not rising everywhere around the world.

Three Different Paths Since 2000

National Index vs. Major Cities

Price Divergences

On Australia, IMF assessment points out that house price gains have moderated. However, the extent of cooling has varied considerably across cities. The strongest price increases continue to be recorded in Sydney and Melbourne, where underlying demand for housing remains strong. With house prices still rising ahead of income, standard valuation metrics suggest somewhat higher house price overvaluation relative to the previous IMF assessment.

On Austria, IMF assessment notes that the cumulative increase in the house price index over 2007–2015 was nearly 40 percent. To a large extent, this increase was driven by price dynamics in Vienna. The OeNB residential price index indicator, which assesses whether prices move in line with fundamental factors, points to an overvaluation of property prices of about 22 percent for Vienna, while prices in the rest of the country appear broadly in line with fundamentals.


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