Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The answers will determine the course of this crisis...

Israel launched unprecedented strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets early Friday morning. This followed the latest US-Iranian nuclear talks stalling, continued speculation that Iran is secretly building nukes, and growing Israeli anxiety with the situation. From the looks of it, Israel decapitated the Iranian Armed Forces and the IRGC, yet Iran still vowed to retaliate.

The situation is fluid, but as of Friday morning Moscow time, there are five questions whose answers will determine the course of this crisis:

1. To What Extent Did The US Assist Israel?

Trump publicly distanced himself from Israel's rapid lead-up to these unprecedented strikes, which followed his reported rift with Bibi, but Iranian policymakers have long believed that the US and Israel are iron-clad allies that always work together. Their assessment of the extent to which the US assisted Israel in these strikes will therefore determine the scope and scale of their retaliation. If they conclude that the US played a role, then American military assets in the region and elsewhere might be targeted.

2. What Will Be The Scale & Scope Of Iran's Retaliation Look Like?

Building upon the above, Iran can either throw everything that it has at Israel if it senses that this is a pivotal moment in their decades-long rivalry or it can carry out a comparatively more restrained retaliation, though the latter might still be exploited as the pretext for follow-up strikes by Israel. Apart from targeting American military assets, Iran could also finally blockade the Strait of Hormuz like it's long threatened to do, though that could also be exploited as the pretext for direct US military involvement.

3. Will Trump Resist Mission Creep?

Even if the US didn't assist Israel, Iran shares this view, and American military assets aren't targeted in its retaliation, Trump might still get dragged into the conflict if the "deep state" convinces him to authorize air defense support of Israel and/or joint offensive operations with it after Iran's retaliation. He'd risk irreparably splitting his base with all that entails for his movement's future if he does, particularly if this results in the US' involvement in a major and costly regional war, so he'd do well to resist mission creep.