Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) plans to move forward with a six-bill spending package, which includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) which runs ICE. Democrats are insisting that R's drop the DHS language from the package, however Republicans are refusing to do so. 

The House-passed bill would allocate another $10 billion for ICE on top of the $76 billion the agency is already slated to receive over four years from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law last year. 

Right now Trump is focusing on "de-escalatory measures," as one administration official tells Punchbowl News. To that end, the admin has already demoted Gregory Bovino, the CBP official in charge of Minneapolis operations - who's been replaced by border czar Tom Homan. Trump also spoke by phone with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey on Monday. Meanwhile, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem has agreed to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee after months of refusing to do so. According to Punchbowl, Noem "has a real problem on both sides of the aisle on the Hill," and her top aide, Corey Lewandowski, met with Trump for two hours on Monday night. 

Polymarket odds of a shutdown by Jan. 31 (Saturday) are now hovering around 79%. 

Democrats Are Still A No

Senate Democrats - who are vowing to block the funding if it includes the DHS language, say the proposals being floated the the White House and Senate Republicans are unrealistic, and they're a 'no' until they see significant reforms to the conduct of federal immigration officers in Minneapolis and other cities - including prohibiting them from wearing masks during federal operations and requiring judicial search warrants before entering a suspect's home. 

On Monday, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced that Democrats will gladly speed through procedural obstacles to pass the funding package as long as it doesn't include DHS funding.

"If [Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.)] puts those five bills on the floor this week, we can pass them right away. If not, Republicans will again be responsible for another government shutdown," said Schumer. 

Of note, stripping the DHS / ICE funding from the FY2026 package would require a new vote in the House, which is on recess this week - so there would be a short-term shutdown at minimum. 

GOP congressional leaders and the White House are desperate to avoid a scenario in which the funding package has to go back to the House, which explains their opposition to splitting off the DHS bill.

Here's the concern gripping the top levels of the Trump administration — the House simply can't pass another DHS funding bill under any circumstances.

Even if Trump were to cut a deal with Democrats that can get through the Senate, House Republicans believe they can't round up 218 votes to pass a rule to get it on the House floor. Or alternatively, find 290 lawmakers willing to pass it under suspension of the rules. Republicans just don't believe there's a coalition in the House that can pass another DHS bill.