Fatih Birol described the conflict, now in its third week, as "the greatest global energy security threat in history", and said it would take time "to have oil and gas rehabilitated".

"It will be six months for some [sites] to be operational, others much longer," Birol warned.

Attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East continued this week, with Israel unleashing a firestorm by striking Iran's South Pars gas facility, which led Iranian forces to launch attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities that may take three to five years to return to full capacity.

Both attacks signaled that upstream energy assets were no longer off-limits, though Israel has since promised not to hit any more Iranian energy assets.

Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven said his oil team's near-term view remains as follows:

1) oil prices will likely continue to trend higher while Hormuz flows very remain low,

2) Brent is likely to exceed its 2008 all time high if depressed flows keep the market focused on the risk of lengthier disruptions, and

3) any rise in market perceived risks of US export restrictions is likely to widen the Brent-WTI price gap further. (denied today... for now)

5 of the 7 Largest Historical Oil Supply Shocks in the Past 50 Years Were Persistent

In a separate note, Goldman analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby estimates that total crude production shut-ins (primarily due to precautionary curtailments and storage management) have reached 9.2 mb/d.