In a striking role reversal, Russia appears to be preparing to supply its embattled partner Iran with one-way attack drones, just as Iran previously supplied Russia to sustain its fight in Ukraine.

The Financial Times (FT) reported that Russia is nearing the completion of phased deliveries of drones to Iran, representing Russia's provision of lethal aid to Iran since the war began.

Western intelligence reports referenced by FT indicate that senior Russian and Iranian officials began secret talks on drone deliveries soon after Israel and the US carried out attacks on Iran.

These shipments commenced in early March and are expected to conclude by the end of the month, according to the FT report. Russia, a strong ally of Iran, is said to have offered support, which may include intelligence sharing, satellite imagery and targeting information.

Russia has denied such reports, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissing them as media fabrications and urging people not to pay attention to them.

Previously, Russia has allegedly supplied Iran with targeting intelligence against US warships and bases in the Middle East, according to prior reports. Such intelligence may have allowed Iran to conduct more accurate missile strikes, despite US General Dan Caine mentioning in a US Department of Defense (DoD) briefing this month that Iran's ballistic missile attacks have declined by 90% since the start of hostilities.

Kelly Grieco, in a recent Bloomberg article, notes that open-source intelligence indicates that a quarter of Iran's ballistic missiles now slip through missile defenses. Grieco states that targeting fewer missiles and drones at carefully chosen targets is more effective in inflicting costs.

In terms of drones, Caine says that Iran's one-way drone attacks have decreased by 83% since the start of operations. He adds that US and Israeli strikes have destroyed or damaged two-thirds of Iran's drone, missile, and naval production shipyards and facilities. Those strikes might have significantly degraded Iran's drone capabilities, with a pre-war production rate of 10,000 units per month, according to Reuters.

However, Grieco says in a recent War on the Rocks article that an 83% decline in Iranian drone launches reflects observable behavior rather than confirmed destruction of capacity.

Grieco warns that reduced launch rates may stem from tactical recalibration, stockpiling for larger strikes, shifting operational priorities, or deliberate pacing, rather than attrition. She warns that dispersed drone systems like the Shahed are inherently difficult to track and assess, while uncertain stockpile estimates further complicate evaluation.