What a lively Sunday April 13 proved to be. We had the landslide defeat of Hungary's Viktor Orbán; the predictable failure of 24 – some reports say 21, but who's counting? – hours' worth of talks in Islamabad between America and Iran; Donald Trump's announcement in response of a blockade by the US Navy of the Strait of Hormuz; and, to cap it all, a late night verbal attack by Trump on Pope Leo, for the apparently shocking papal sin of favoring peace over war.

While Hungary's result may be welcomed as a sign that democracy in that troublesome EU member state remains alive and kicking, and while Trump's attack on Pope Leo can be interpreted as a sign that the Catholic Church is doing the right thing, it is much harder to judge the state of the confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran. Indeed, it is hard, though not impossible, to feel optimistic about the prospects, in military, political or economic terms.

In theory, Trump's choice of mounting a counter-blockade to challenge Iran's own claims to control Hormuz, the strait through which in normal times one-fifth of the global oil supply is carried on tankers, could be a bold bid to call Iran's bluff and to force the Iranian leadership to reconsider the tough stance their negotiators took in Islamabad. If the main leverage Iran believes it has against America is its control over the strait, then challenging that control could make sense.

Certainly, compared with the other military options that may have been presented to Trump during recent weeks, most of which will have involved some sort of invasion by American ground troops of Iranian islands or its coastline, the blockade looks less hazardous.

However, it introduces three new possibilities: that in response Iran might attempt to sink an American warship; that by intercepting all tankers coming from Iranian ports, the United States could find itself in a direct confrontation with Chinese vessels; and that the crisis in supply of oil and some other critical commodities could be worsened and prolonged.

If the American blockade is fully enforced, it would have the potential advantage of reducing the income Iran is earning by allowing its oil to be exported to countries that it favors, which mainly means China. This would make Iran's already weak economic situation even worse. The trouble is that Iran is not without friends: Both China and Russia have already been providing weapons and financial support, and could do more.

Unless Iran believes, following the talks in Islamabad with Vice-President JD Vance, that the chances of an agreement are better than both sides' official statements have indicated, it must be quite likely that the Iranian regime will want to display its strength and resilience by retaliating, before perhaps talking again.