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IPFS News Link • Iran

No Way Out for Trump on Iran

• https://www.lewrockwell.com, Moon of Alabama

The Iranian proposal foresees three steps:

A peace agreement with some guarantee that the U.S. and Israel will refrain from any further attack on Iran. Following that:

An agreement to lift the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade of Iranian sea transport. Iran will insist of staying in control of the Strait and on collecting contributions for its reconstruction from each ship that passes through. Following that:
Talks about the nuclear issues.

The Trump administration does not like (archived) the proposal but does not know what else it can do:

President Trump has told advisers he is not satisfied with Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, according to multiple people briefed on discussions in the White House Situation Room on Monday.

Iran's proposal to open the strait has been subject to a vigorous debate inside the administration over whether the United States or Iran has more leverage, and which country is better positioned to endure the economic hardship the closure of the waterway has created.

Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for two more months would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran's energy industry. Oil wells cannot be turned on and off, and they would be damaged if they are forced to shut down, incurring costly repairs. Iran, these officials argue, will make a deal to avoid such long-term problems.

But others in the administration have said the assessment is flawed, noting that Iran's positions have hardened, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has only solidified its hold on power.

The U.S. government has assessed that Iranian negotiators have not been authorized — either by the supreme leader or by senior Revolutionary Guards officials — to make concessions on the nuclear program. Without a resumption of military action, there is little reason to think the Iranian position will shift.

Even if bombing resumed, there is little evidence that would alter Iran's decision-making process.