While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown.

The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.

Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve.

At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year.

The question then becomes:

How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis?

And, who folds first?