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IPFS News Link • Iran

Iran Needs Escalation To Avoid The Ceasefire Trap

• https://ronpaulinstitute.org, by Moon of Alabama

The conflict in Ukraine is an good example for this. Hits against Russia, directed by the CIA, are escalated bit by bit while Russia is reluctant to more severe deterrence measures.

The current war on Iran is another example. The US is insisting on a ceasefire while trying to erode Iran's leverage with economic strangulation.

Iran's major weapon, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, will need another month or two to fully unfold its intended effect on the US and global economy. Meanwhile the US is trying to tire Iran with fake diplomacy, economic measures (its blockade) and pinpoint strikes.

But Iran is well aware of this tactic. It has decided to avoid this ceasefire trap by continuous escalation:

The United States and Israel are using this [ceasefire] period to reshape realities on the ground, weaken Iran's leverage, and arrive at a negotiating table where Tehran's position has already been quietly eroded. This perception is strengthening those within the Islamic Republic who argue that diplomatic restraint, under current conditions, carries its own strategic costs.

The delay in finalizing the memorandum of understanding is increasingly interpreted as purposive rather than procedural and as a US attempt to use the passage of time as a strategic instrument. The concern is that each week of ceasefire, with American military and economic pressure continuing unabated and Iranian restraint producing no reciprocal concessions, represents a net erosion of the position Tehran believes it secured during the forty days of active fighting.

Iran has decided to respond to this 'boiling-the-frog' tactic by increasing the cost for even the slightest US attack. It is no longer responding in kind. Each US strike is answered by hitting back stronger and against more targets. As Rob Campbell provides of the skirmish of June 2:

Late at night, the Americans hit an Iranian oil tanker and the Iranians retaliated with an attack on an USraeli vessel. The Americans also targeted the control tower on Qeshm Island and the Iranians responded with attacks on US Kuwaiti bases at Ali Al- Salem and Arifjan and the Fifth Fleet base. Bahrain also came under attack and it airspace closed to all traffic. It is claimed that 136 Shahed drones were seen above Kuwait while heavy damage was inflicted on Kuwait's only international airport which has been closed.

Satellite images indicate damage to a hanger which housed drones and aircraft at Ali al-Salem airbase in Kuwait

The Iranians also attacked the Kurdish Separatist group at their HG in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan).

Iran has warned the Americans that they will respond to future attacks with increased intensity. which they appear to be doing.