China's home prices continued to fall in the first half of 2026 as buyers held back, betting that values would drop farther. With sales volumes and prices both in decline, analysts see little sign of a near-term recovery.

Data released on Wednesday by the China Index Academy showed that secondary-market home prices across 100 major Chinese cities fell 0.42% month-on-month in June, to an average of 12,639 yuan (US$1,750) per square meter. Of those cities, 88 recorded declines while only 12 saw gains.

The secondary market slide was broad-based across city tiers. In June, first-tier city secondary home prices fell 6.95% year-on-year. Second-tier cities fared worse, dropping 8.21% on the year, while smaller third- and fourth-tier cities fell 7.48% year-on-year.

Among the 10 largest cities, Nanjing and Wuhan posted the steepest year-on-year declines in June, with secondary market prices dropping 11.45% and 10.89%, respectively. Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Chongqing all saw falls of between 8% and 10%. Hangzhou, Shanghai, Chengdu and Shenzhen recorded year-on-year declines of between 5% and 8% in June. Shenzhen performed best among the ten cities, with a 5.27% drop compared with a year earlier.

Chinese commentators widely read the first-half data as confirmation that the downward trend in home prices has yet to run its course, with further declines expected through the remainder of 2026.  

A Henan-based columnist writing under the pen name Qingjin Wenwang describes how the mood among prospective buyers had visibly shifted.

"A friend of mine started looking for a home to buy ahead of marriage in late 2025. Back then, sellers were confident and showed little willingness to negotiate," he says. "By June 2026, when he returned to the same district to look at similar properties, sellers had largely softened their tone and kept asking him when he could sign a deal."

The experience left his friend with a growing fear that prices could fall farther even after he commits to a purchase, he says.

Citing figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last month, he outlines four reasons why a genuine recovery remains out of reach:

Prices have not stabilized. In May, only 16 of 70 major cities saw new-home prices rise month on month and just 10 recorded secondary-market gains. Third-tier cities saw declines accelerate.

Buyers are still retreating. New housing sales fell 10.8% year on year by floor area and 13.5% by value in the first five months of 2026. Many households are deferring purchases indefinitely.

Developers are pulling back. Real estate investment dropped 16.2% year-on-year in January-May, new construction starts fell 22.6% and completions declined 23.4%.

Secondary market confidence has eroded. Price anchors in many cities have quietly shifted lower – and, once buyer psychology turns cautious, it is slow to reverse.