As social philosopher Eric Hoffer once said: “The unpredictability inherent in human affairs is due largely to the fact that the by-products of a human process are more fateful than the product.” Hoffer’s quote points to the law of unintended consequences as being the driving force behind the unpredictability of human events. No matter how hard the corporate state control freaks try to enforce the doctrine of “portion controlled servings” of everything (including freedom) on humanity, the human animal is by nature incredibly adaptable and in the end oozes out of the tyrant’s clenched fist (although unfortunately not before millions of individual humans are squeezed to death).
Prehistoric humans could generally figure out that flowers bloomed in the spring and died in the fall, but predicting human behavior and its effects has proven to be an elusive task for almost anyone who has tried. Philosophers, mystics, and economists have been making predictions for thousands of years, and most of these predictions are bunk. Yet we all like to make them because it feels good to be right about something of such great importance like THE FUTURE! It boosts the ego to think that we may know more than the next guy.
Many economists have long believed that it is impossible for governments to print money indefinitely without creating hyperinflation and causing an economic collapse. Although there has certainly been a considerable amount of price inflation in the United States during my lifetime, the economic collapse predicted by many has not happened--at least not yet. And predicting WHEN something will happen is really the crux of any prediction. Any fool can predict that paper money will become worthless at some point in history or that an empire will eventually crumble. But if the prediction is inaccurate by 50 or 100 years, it isn’t really of much value in the span of a human lifetime.
Because of the fiscal insanity of the world’s governments (and to a lesser extent my human ego, I hope), I have believed that an economic meltdown was a likely possibility nearly every year during the past 30 years. Now I like to think I’m a pretty smart guy"I’ve been reading Rothbard, Mises, and Rand for decades, and I keep up with all the current wisdom on Freedom’s Phoenix and Lew Rockwell. I know more about philosophy and economics than 98% of Americans, but the fact is that I have been WRONG in my predictions EVERY SINGLE YEAR! I’m beginning to feel like Charlie Brown flat on his back after Lucy pulls the football out from under him every year. We have surely experienced some minor economic dislocations in my lifetime, but the pendulum always seems to swing back the other way. For example, interest rates were in the 15%-20% range during the late 1970s and the price of gold spiked up to $850 an ounce in 1980. By the 1990s, interest rates were in the 5%-10% range and gold prices were a very modest $300-$400 an ounce. Currently, interest rates run between 0%-5%, and gold sells for around $1,600 an ounce. These price fluctuations for paper (now largely electronic) money and gold are simply reflections of the unpredictability of human economic behavior as billions of individuals adjust to the ever-changing conditions of life. Even the control freaks running the corporate state are mere mortals who do stupid and short-sighted things whose unintended consequences undermine their efforts to control everybody and everything on the planet (smile). No wonder I can’t yet seem to get a prediction right!
Several months ago, I was a guest at an economic discussion group where the topic was preparedness and survival in times of crisis. As various individuals voiced their opinions about surviving a crisis, it became quite clear to me that everyone had a different prediction about the nature, severity and timing of the potential crisis. There was certainly a faction who believed hyperinflation was the real threat to our economic way of life (and it may be), but I pointed out that the last depression in the United States had been deflationary. Rather than choosing to create money by printing it, the bankers chose to destroy it by simply closing their doors (with the sanction and help of the state, of course!) There is nothing to stop governments and bankers from simply wiping out the digital money in everyone’s accounts and making gold possession a crime as it was in the United States from 1933 to 1974. Or they can add zeros to the digital money and achieve a similar result, as the Germans did in the 1930s.
Other members of the group thought the greatest threats to humanity were related to nuclear war or terrorism which would disrupt the power and utility infrastructure and create food shortages, mayhem and rioting in the streets. Although this possibility certainly exists, how can one predict what some control freak state leader might or might not do (and where and when he might do it), not to mention predict what any one of the millions of potential freelance “terrorists” might do on a planet of six billion people? Even with satellite cameras mapping every square inch of the earth and government computers gobbling up every last byte of data on the Internet, the corporate state’s control freaks can’t predict future violent attacks (unless they initiate them, but that’s a topic for another day). And even if they could predict future violence and crises, one can be certain that they wouldn’t be sharing any information with we the peons.
Although most predictions about the future of humanity tend to be rather grim, I find a great deal of humor in watching the intense emotional attachment people feel towards their predictions. If you want to generate a lot of heat on a cold day, lock a bunch of libertarians in a room and challenge them to reach a consensus about how the American Empire is going to end and how one should best prepare for it. The hard core “survivalists” will insist on heading for the hills and preparing to fight the “enemy” (the government, the terrorists, the Chinese, the golden horde, etc…), while the more “mainstream” types will either insist that the American “Republic” (bwahahahaha!) will thrive for another 100 years if we vote their guys into office or lament the fact that the state has the individual so hopelessly outgunned that it is futile to resist. How many times have we heard one of our fellow libertarians proffer some version of either the “fight to the death” worldview or the “you can’t fight the army with your Glock and your AR-15” argument? To both the survivalists and the mainstreamers, I have only one thing to say"SOVIET EMPIRE. Of course, that’s the prediction I am emotionally invested in on my more optimistic days, particularly if I’ve been reading Butler Shaffer.
Since the premise of my article is that predictions are bunk, one might ask whether I believe there is any value at all in trying to prepare for the future, whatever one’s view of it, and the answer is a qualified “yes,” but only to the point that preparing makes you more free rather than less free. Since most or all predictions are bunk, let’s assume that a variety of bad things MIGHT happen during one’s lifetime while always remaining aware that a great catastrophe may NEVER occur in one’s lifetime. I’m almost 50 years old, and I have certainly not been victimized by any great catastrophe (other than the constant oppression by the state), and with 20 or 30 years left to go (if I am lucky), I may never (other than the constant oppression by the state) have to live with any of the war, economic collapse, famine, rioting or other doomsday predictions in which millions of people have become emotionally invested. My philosophy on survival can best be summed up by the phrase: “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst without compromising your happiness very much if the worst never comes true.” To that end, here are my brief (but effective and realistic, I hope) recommendations for surviving many of the ugly crises that may befall you should anyone’s nasty predictions actually come true.
First, understand that the average person of average means cannot survive an all-out nuclear war or an asteroid the size of the moon colliding with the earth. So don’t even try. Completely ignore anyone who makes this prediction. Yes, a few members of the corporo-statist elite may live out their lives five miles under the earth in a bunker you paid for, but who cares? Take comfort in the fact that they will eventually die a miserable death in the stagnant air when their power source runs dry.
Second, understand that a person of any means cannot prepare and survive any predicted crisis if he spends 110% of his money on frivolous things. If you are overly consumed with consumerism, you will not have a chance. You cannot eat your 60-inch TV and your luxury car. And I will kill you if you try to take my food. If you choose to do nothing and one of the bad predictions becomes reality, I pity the fool.
Third, the average person can and should rely on the time-honored principle of DIVERSIFICATION to survive a variety of predicted crises that may or may not occur. Diversification is an investment principle based on the idea that human behavior is unpredictable and that the best economic “predictions” are often wrong. In the traditional sense, an investor diversifies his investment holdings into various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, money market accounts, precious metals, real estate, etc. The assets in these investment classes typically move in different directions as market conditions change, thereby reducing risk to the investor and ensuring that you will at least have something of value left in your portfolio when you hope to retire (although the state will do its best to make sure you keep slaving away until you draw your last breath).
The same principle of diversification should be applied to your life in surviving the effects of any potential economic or other crisis. Since the exact nature and timing of the crisis is always unknown (if a crisis ever occurs in one’s lifetime), it’s best to cover as much ground as possible without spending your life’s savings or all your free time planning for survival. Even I am not going to spend much time on it here in the article. If you want to know everything about surviving every potential crisis that could possibly be predicted, please visit SurvivalBlog.com. Seriously. It has everything you ever wanted to know about surviving anything, anytime, and anywhere.
For the average American living in a city or a suburb, surviving means being prepared to get through most of life’s uncertainties with a minimum of effort and expense. To that end, here is my brief list of what I would have in my home in case of economic disruptions, famine, natural disasters, local rioting, etc. Let’s consider a hypothetical family of four and you can adjust your list up or down as appropriate. Many people will criticize my list as being inadequate (“You need at least two years’ worth of food and 10,000 rounds of ammo per gun, man!”), while others will object to the fact that they can’t adequately prepare themselves overnight with the $50,000 in debt they have accumulated after decades of profligate spending on toys and entertainment. It sucks to be both of you, although for different reasons. For those in between these two extremes, my advice is to start small and work your way down the list in pretty much the following order:
Water: 500 gallons in storage and a portable water purifier. This really needs no explanation. Without water, we would all die rather quickly. Without power (or if the bad guys decide to turn off the drink at the city source), the water won’t flow out of your tap.
First Aid & Medical Supplies: Keep at least a six-month supply of all the prescription and over-the-counter drugs your family uses regularly. Have a well-stocked first aid kit including a guide with emergency first aid instructions.
Guns & Ammo: Two semi-auto rifles and two handguns. A few thousand rounds of ammo. A little training and practice. If you want to obsess over which guns to get, consult a book called “Boston’s Gun Bible.” It is an excellent source that will tell you everything you ever wanted to know about firearms. If you don’t have the time to read it or the money to invest in a .308 battle rifle, just get yourself a couple of SKS or AK-style rifles and a couple of Glocks in the caliber of your choice. There"I just saved you $25 and countless hours of time, freeing your mind for other things. You can thank me by sending me anything on this list (except water).
Food: A 3-month supply of dried and canned food is a good start. You can build this gradually if you want. Costco has a 200-serving bucket of dried food for about $70 that lasts 10 years. Start with that and add your favorite canned goods, rice, beans, and other dried foods. Consult SurvivalBlog for storage tips.
Cash: I can hear the goldbugs howling already, but keep $500 or $1,000 cash hidden somewhere in case of an unexpected crisis. People at cash machines will be targets in a crisis, and ATMs won’t spit out cash if the power fails.
Silver: Pre-1965 90% US silver coins. Get as many as you can afford. Start with a few hundred dollars’ worth and gradually accumulate more.
Gold: Coins, not jewelry. American Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs, and South African Krugerrands are all good choices because people recognize these coins and the value they hold.
Generator: Honda EU 1000 or 2000. They are quiet enough to stand next to and have a conversation, and they literally sip gas. Store 50-100 gallons of gas if you want to keep your fridge and freezer running for months without power. Store some gas anyway so you can get out of Dodge in your SUV if necessary.
Extra Barter Items: If you have the means, save extra items for bartering with others in a crisis. Such items include guns, ammo, food, water, liquor, fuel, medical supplies, etc.
Retreat Property in a Rural Area: If you can afford it, have a place you can go in case things get ugly in the city. Store supplies there. If you can’t afford it, don’t worry about it. Worrying about what you cannot change will not make you free. The control freaks may not let the rich people out of the city in a crisis anyway, so console yourself with that thought.
For about $5,000, one can accumulate everything on the list down to and including about $1,000 worth of silver. For an additional $5,000, one can get a couple of gold coins, a generator, and some fuel. Or skip the gold coins, and get more food, silver, and guns. Most of you reading this article probably have at least some of the items on the list already, so your task in dealing with doomsday predictions is rendered somewhat less daunting. Although I certainly would encourage people to do more than just the bare minimum, I am trying to make the point that in my nearly 50 years on earth, nothing very dire has actually happened, and the stuff on this list would have gotten me through about 90% of the dire (and mostly incorrect) predictions I have heard in my lifetime. Get the basic stuff covered and get on with the business of living.
Don’t put the enjoyment of your real life on hold based on anyone’s dire predictions about the end of the world as we know it (that’s TEOTWAWKI to you survivalists). Perhaps the most important part of being free is understanding that you can’t predict the future and learning how to live and love in the now. The only predication I can make is that if you put the past, the present, and the future in proper perspective, you just might free your mind a little bit more. Long live the LOVE-o-lution!
