Existing Home Sales Preview: 20 Percent Plunge in Sales Likely

08-20-2010 • CalculatedRiskBlog.com

MarketWatch is reporting the consensus for July existing home sales is 4.85 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). And from Dow Jones: Week Ahead "July existing-home sales ... likely declined 4.3% from June" June sales were reported as 5.37 million, so a decline of 4.3% would be 5.14 million SAAR. Note: July existing home sales will be reported next Tuesday. Housing economist Tom Lawler's preliminary forecast was 3.95 million SAAR (based on a bottom up analysis). Many of the regional reports showed sales declines of 20% or more from July 2009 when the NAR reported sales of 5.14 million SAAR. A 20% decline from July 2009 would be in the low 4 millions ... Maybe the MarketWatch and Dow Jones consensus numbers are incorrect (other numbers will be released later today), or there is probably going to be a big miss next Tuesday. Take the WAY under!