Ukip are set to win their first Commons seat with a landslide 64 per cent of the vote following the biggest swing in modern political history.
Turncoat MP Douglas Carswell is set to humiliate David Cameron at the Clacton by-election sparked by his defection, a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday has revealed.
The figures ? the first test of public opinion since the politician rocked Westminster by defecting to Nigel Farage's party ? predict a record 48 point swing towards Ukip.
And they put the anti-Brussels party a staggering 44 percentage points ahead of Mr Carswell's former party in the Essex constituency.
If the results are repeated in the by-election, expected in October, the swing would exceed the current record 44 points achieved by Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes when he thrashed Labour's Peter Tatchell, the gay rights campaigner, in a by-election in Bermondsey, South London, in 1983.
The biggest anti-Tory swing to date is the 35 points achieved by the Lib Dems in the Christchurch by-election in 1993.